About
Parra Macro is independent macro strategy research by Oscar Parra, covering rates, sovereign credit, emerging-market FX and commodities.
What we publish
- Rates — a Fed policy-path model set against fed funds futures, plus emerging-market policy rates.
- Country risk — sovereign default probabilities and internal 1–10 ratings for about 190 countries, with EM FX and carry screens.
- Commodities — named-scenario forecasts for oil, gas, agriculture and metals.
- Trade ideas — a weekly board of positions where our models and market pricing disagree.
- Research — monthly notes on Substack.
The GeoRisk app
GeoRisk Monitor is our live geopolitical risk app. It runs thousands of news sources a day through NLP sentiment analysis, GDELT event monitoring and multi-source aggregation to produce composite risk scores across six indicators, for 190+ countries with priority tracking of 50 key nations. Scores update continuously through the trading day.
How we work
- Model against market — every view starts from a model estimate compared with what prices imply; the trade is in the gap.
- Data first — official statistics, market data and news signals, with the datasets behind each chart available on the Data page.