How are markets reading the economy?
Macro strategy across rates, FX, sovereign credit and commodities: what markets are pricing today, our Fed call against futures, and the weekly trade board. Monthly notes go out on Substack.
Growth
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Inflation
Rates
Dollar
Risk
Latest US releases
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fed funds target
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Next FOMC
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Market implies
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Model implies
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Our model and market pricing disagree on the next meeting.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance, refreshed every five minutes. Changes are against the previous close.
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Strategy
- Rates Fed path model against futures pricing, plus emerging-market policy rates.
- Country Risk Sovereign default probabilities, 1–10 internal ratings and EM FX screens.
- Commodities Scenario forecasts for oil, gas, agriculture and metals.
- Trade Ideas Weekly board of sovereign longs and shorts where model and market disagree.
- Models Macro model, house prices, labor market, CPI release and data-center tracking.
- Data Downloadable datasets behind every chart on the site.
- Research Notes and write-ups on rates, country risk, EM FX and commodities.
Apps
GeoRisk Monitor
Live geopolitical risk for 190+ countries: a world map of composite risk scores, active hotspots and scored news headlines, refreshed through the day.
Latest note
All research →Monthly macro notes on country risk, EM FX and commodities
Sovereign rating changes, deterioration screens, scenario forecasts and the model-versus-market trade board.