EM FX & Rates — Beta Opportunity Screen
Where EM currencies and rates are moving, decomposed into dollar beta vs idiosyncratic alpha, then ranked by carry, momentum and value. Built to surface opportunities you can act on — not just chart.
? New here? How to read this dashboard — what each opportunity type means and how to use it ▾
FX — Carry & Alpha (β)
We split each currency's move into the part the dollar explains (its DXY beta) and the part it doesn't (residual / alpha). High carry-to-vol + positive momentum = clean long; a big negative residual = it lagged its dollar beta, a mean-reversion long.
Duration (rates β)
Sensitivity to the level of rates. Where EM 10Y yields are high and falling, a long-duration (receiver) position earns carry plus capital gains. The ETF block shows the real price move per 100bp.
Convexity (γ)
Vol compression (1m ÷ 1y realized vol) flags coiled, low-vol regimes — long-gamma breakout setups. Negative skew + fat tails flag the carry-crash signature, where you're implicitly short gamma.
Data note. Everything is built from free spot FX, the US Treasury curve, EM bond ETFs and FRED/OECD yields. We can't see NDFs, FX swaps or swaption implied-vol surfaces (paid OTC data), so carry is the forward-implied rate differential (covered interest parity) and convexity is realized, not implied — directional reads, not live option greeks.
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Opportunity screen
Ranked by composite = z(carry-to-vol) + z(3-month momentum). Click any column to re-sort. Residual = actual 1m move − (DXY β × DXY 1m move): the slice of the move the dollar does not explain. Big negative residual = lagged its dollar beta → mean-reversion long.
| # | Currency | Signal | Score | Carry bp | Carry/Vol | 3m % | β DXY | Resid 1m | Vol % | Rationale |
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FX moves vs USD
Positive = currency stronger against the dollar. Sparkline = currency-strength index (rising = appreciating).
| Currency | Spot | 1D | 1W | 1M | YTD | 1Y | Trend (1y) |
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Duration opportunities rates β
Where to take duration (the level of rates). High EM 10Y yields that are falling reward a long-duration (receiver) stance — carry plus capital gains. The ETF chips show the empirical effective duration: the actual price move per 100bp shift in US 10Y.
| # | Country | Stance | 10Y % | Δ3M bp | Δ12M bp | Score | Read |
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Convexity opportunities gamma γ
Realized convexity proxies (no options data). Vol compression = 1m ÷ 1y realized vol: well below 1 = a coiled, quiet regime (long-gamma / breakout setup). Strongly negative skew with fat tails = the carry-crash signature — small steady gains, occasional big drops, i.e. implicitly short gamma.
| Currency | Signal | Vol 1m | Vol 1y | Compress | Skew | Kurt | Read |
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US Treasury curve —
| Tenor | Yield | 1D bp | 1M bp | YTD bp |
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EM bond proxies
| Proxy | Price | 1M | YTD |
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EM 10Y government yields
| Country | 10Y % | Δ3M bp | Δ12M bp | As of |
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